internal probabilities

we can treat our mind as a huge probability engine. everything we encounter shapes the probability that we will respond in some way. it's this vast expanse of measurements, meters, dials - all these things being toggled by the subtlest of things around us, ever since birth.

so when you're studying, or doing any activity by practice, you're really trying to sway your internal probabilities to behave in a particular way, hopefully to your benefit on the exam/performance. it's about shaping not only the captain of the ship - your conscious - but also the crew members - your subconscious.

everything has been a probability in this universe, too. the probability that a particular star burst and eventually formed particles here and there forming planets and eventually the stardust from who knows where becomes you after probability of probability of probability of events occurring.

then where does free will come in? in this model, there is no free will. we model the human and any other living or nonliving thing as the result of events, which each have probability. you raise your hand in the air, you claim to do it by free will. but no. your existence was a probabilistic occurrence, and the occurrence of a neuron firing an electric signal from your brain to cause your arm to raise a probabilistic thing. a roll of dice: the result something measurable by the probability of those physical phenomena that caused that dice to exist and your hand to toss it like so.

a bit depressing, then, to have no free will? not really. a recursive element comes in when we recognize what we are. as probability machines, we decide what kind of internal probabilities do we want to toggle within us? this decision itself is a result of some probability, but it triggers and we suddenly have this recursive understanding of ourselves. we have created a paradigm through which to view our thoughts.

when do probability machines become self-conscious? similar to when does nothing but circuitry in a robot give the robot self-awareness? when we can re-evaluate how we are doing. there is some threshold in reasoning that lets us recognize ourselves. some "level 1." but a level 2 would be diving into this paradigm, perhaps - seeing ourselves as probabilities.

but then again, this is just a paradigm. 'probability' is an invented notion. how will we ever cease inventing terms that define how we perceive reality? we have no way of knowing what reality is; we only approximate it by our definitions, which shape our views. this probability view of the mind is just another, but maybe there's something more to it. a model for ourselves that will maybe be correct in creating intelligence on our own.

what's the point? how do we live our lives - as just the results of probabilities? well it certainly creates a nice thing to blame screwing up an exam on. you just didn't sway your internal probabilities to do enough in the face of particular problems at a particular time and place.

if anything this creates a potential lens through which we may look at the world. it shapes how we behave, how we create. having multiple lens is good for viewing different situations. I don't know if there's a correct model, but this might help us do things we cannot yet articulate.